The Vampire Diaries: Dark Reunion Chapter Sixteen

Bonnie never could quite remember how the next few seconds went. She heard Stefan's cry that almost seemed to shake the earth beneath her. She saw Damon start toward him. And then she saw the flash. A flash like Klaus's lightning, only not blue-white. This one was gold. And so bright Bonnie felt that the sun had exploded in front of her eyes. All she could make out for several seconds were whirling colors. And then she saw something in the middle of the clearing, near the chimney stack. Something white, shaped like the ghosts, only more solid looking. Something small and huddled that had to be anything but what her eyes were telling her it looked like. Because it looked like a slender naked girl trembling on the forest floor. A girl with golden hair. It looked like Elena. Not the glowing, candle-lit Elena of the spirit world and not the pale, inhumanly beautiful girl who had been Elena the vampire. This was an Elena whose creamy skin was blotching pink and showing gooseflesh under the spatter of the rain. An Elena who looked bewildered as she slowly raised her head and gazed around her, as if all the familiar things in the clearing were unfamiliar to her. It's an illusion. Either that or they gave her a few minutes to say good-bye. Bonnie kept telling herself that, but she couldn't make herself believe it. â€Å"Bonnie?† said a voice uncertainly. A voice that wasn't like wind chimes at all. The voice of a frightened young girl. Bonnie's knees gave out. A wild feeling was growing inside her. She tried to push it away, not daring to even examine it yet. She just watched Elena. Elena touched the grass in front of her. Hesitantly at first, then more and more firmly, quicker and quicker. She picked up a leaf in fingers that seemed clumsy, put it down, patted the ground. Snatched it up again. She grabbed a whole handful of wet leaves, held them to her, smelled them. She looked up at Bonnie, the leaves scattering away. For a moment, they just knelt and stared at each other from the distance of a few feet. Then, tremulously, Bonnie stretched out her hand. She couldn't breathe. The feeling was growing and growing. Elena's hand came up in turn. Reached toward Bonnie's. Their fingers touched. Real fingers. In the real world. Where they both were. Bonnie gave a kind of scream and threw herself on Elena. In a minute she was patting her everywhere in a frenzy, with wild, disbelieving delight. And Elena was solid. She was wet from the rain and she was shivering and Bonnie's hands didn't go through her. Bits of damp leaf and crumbs of soil were clinging to Elena's hair. Elena gasped back, â€Å"I can touch you! I'm here!† She grabbed the leaves again. â€Å"I can touch the ground!† â€Å"I can see you touching it!† They might have kept this up indefinitely, but Meredith interrupted. She was standing a few steps away, staring, her dark eyes enormous, her face white. She made a choking sound. â€Å"Meredith!† Elena turned to her and held out handfuls of leaves. She opened her arms. Meredith, who had been able to cope when Elena's body was found in the river, when Elena had appeared at her window as a vampire, when Elena had materialized in the clearing like an angel, just stood there, shaking. She looked about to faint. â€Å"Meredith, she's solid! You can touch her! See?† Bonnie pummeled Elena again joyfully. Meredith didn't move. She whispered, â€Å"It's impossible-â€Å" â€Å"It's true! See? It's true!† Bonnie was getting hysterical. She knew she was, and she didn't care. If anyone had a right to get hysterical, it was her. â€Å"It's true, it's true,† she caroled. â€Å"Meredith, come see.† Meredith, who had been staring at Elena all this while, made another choked sound. Then, with one motion, she flung herself down on Elena. She touched her, found that her hand met the resistance of flesh. She looked into Elena's face. And then she burst into uncontrollable tears. She cried and cried, her head on Elena's naked shoulder. Bonnie gleefully patted both of them. â€Å"Don't you think she'd better put something on?† said a voice, and Bonnie looked up to see Caroline taking off her dress. Caroline did it rather calmly, standing in her beige polyester slip afterward as if she did this sort of thing all the time. No imagination, Bonnie thought again, but without malice. Clearly there were times when no imagination was an advantage. Meredith and Bonnie pulled the dress over Elena's head. She looked small inside it, wet and somehow unnatural, as if she wasn't used to clothing anymore. But it was some protection from the elements, anyway. Then Elena whispered, â€Å"Stefan.† She turned. He was standing there, with Damon and Matt, a little apart from the girls. He was just watching her. As if not only his breath, but his life was held, waiting. Elena got up and took a tottery step to him, and then another and another. Slim and newly fragile inside her borrowed dress, she wavered as she moved toward him. Like the little mermaid learning how to use her legs, Bonnie thought. He let her get almost all the way there, just staring, before he stumbled toward her. They ended in a rush and then fell to the ground together, arms locked around each other, each holding on as tightly as possible. Neither of them said a word. Bonnie watched unabashedly, feeling some of the heady joy spill over into tears. Her throat ached, but these were sweet tears, not the salt tears of pain, and she was still smiling. She was filthy, she was soaking wet, she had never been so happy in her life. She felt as if she wanted to dance and sing and do all sorts of crazy things. Some time later Elena looked up from Stefan to all of them, her face almost as bright as when she'd floated in the clearing like an angel. Shining like starlight. No one will ever call her Ice Princess again, Bonnie thought. â€Å"My friends,† Elena said. It was all she said, but it was enough, that and the queer little sob she gave as she held out a hand to them. They were around her in a second, swarming her, all trying to embrace at once. Even Caroline. â€Å"Elena,† Caroline said, â€Å"I'm sorry†¦Ã¢â‚¬  â€Å"It's all forgotten now,† Elena said, and hugged her as freely as anyone else. Then she grasped a sturdy brown hand and held it briefly to her cheek. â€Å"Matt,† she said, and he smiled at her, blue eyes swimming. But not with misery at seeing her in Stefan's arms, Bonnie thought. Just now Matt's face expressed only happiness. A shadow fell over the little group, coming between them and the moonlight. Elena looked up, and held out her hand again. â€Å"Damon,† she said. The clear light and shining love in her face was irresistible. Or it should have been irresistible, Bonnie thought. But Damon stepped forward unsmiling, his black eyes as bottomless and unfathomable as ever. None of the starlight that shone from Elena was reflected back from them. Stefan looked up at him fearlessly, as he'd looked into the painful brilliance of Elena's golden brightness. Then, never looking away, he held out his hand as well. Damon stood gazing down at them, the two open, fearless faces, the mute offer of their hands. The offer of connection, warmth, humanity. Nothing showed in his own face, and he was utterly motionless himself. â€Å"Come on, Damon,† Matt said softly. Bonnie looked at him quickly, and saw that the blue eyes were intent now as they looked at the shadowed hunter's face. Damon spoke without moving. â€Å"I'm not like you.† â€Å"You're not as different from us as you want to think,† Matt said. â€Å"Look,† he added, an odd note of challenge in his voice, â€Å"I know you killed Mr. Tanner in self-defense, because you told me. And I know you didn't come here to Fell's Church because Bonnie's spell dragged you here, because I sorted the hair and I didn't make any mistakes. You're more like us than you admit, Damon. The only thing I don't know is why you didn't go into Vickie's house to help her.† Memory swept over Bonnie. Herself standing outside Vickie's house, Damon standing beside her. Stefan's voice: Vickie, invite me in. But no one had invited Damon. â€Å"But how did Klaus get in, then-?† she began, following her own thoughts. â€Å"That was Tyler's job, I'm sure,† Damon said tersely. â€Å"What Tyler did for Klaus in return for learning how to reclaim his heritage. And he must have invited Klaus in before we ever started guarding the house-probably before Stefan and I came to Fell's Church. Klaus was well prepared. That night he was in the house and the girl was dead before I knew what was happening.† â€Å"Why didn't you call for Stefan?† Matt said. There was no accusation in his voice. It was a simple question. â€Å"Because there was nothing he could have done! I knew what you were dealing with as soon as I saw it. An Old One. Stefan would only have gotten himself killed- and the girl was past caring, anyway.† Bonnie heard the thread of coldness in his voice, and when Damon turned back to Stefan and Elena, his face had hardened. It was as if some decision had been made. â€Å"You see, I'm not like you,† he said. â€Å"It doesn't matter.† Stefan had still not withdrawn his hand. Neither had Elena. â€Å"And sometimes the good guys do win,† Matt said quietly, encouragingly. â€Å"Damon-† Bonnie began. Slowly, almost reluctantly, he turned toward her. She was thinking about that moment when they had been kneeling over Stefan and he had looked so young. When they had been just Damon and Bonnie at the edge of the world. She thought, for just one instant, that she saw stars in those black eyes. And she could sense in him something-some ferment of feelings like longing and confusion and fear and anger all mixed. But then it was all smoothed over again and his shields were back up and Bonnie's psychic senses told her nothing. And those black eyes were simply opaque. He turned back to the couple on the ground. Then he removed his jacket and stepped behind Elena. He draped it over her shoulders without touching her. â€Å"It's a cold night,† he said. His eyes held Stefan's a moment as he settled the black jacket around her. And then he turned to walk into the darkness between the oak trees. In an instant Bonnie heard the rush of wings. Stefan and Elena wordlessly joined hands again, and Elena's golden head dropped to Stefan's shoulder. Over her hair Stefan's green eyes were turned toward the patch of night where his brother had disappeared. â€Å"You wanted us all back together again!† Bonnie shouted at Caroline, and pulled the scandalized girl into the dance. Meredith, her dignity forgotten, joined them too. And for a long time in the clearing there was only rejoicing. June 21, 7:30 a.m. The Summer Solstice Dear Diary, Oh, it's all too much to explain and you wouldn't believe it anyway. I'm going to bed. Bonnie

Negotiable Instruments in Banking

0 Assignment On Negotiable Instruments in Banking Course Title: Introduction to Banking Course Code: FIN-305 Assigned To: Mr. S. M. Athiqur Rahman Lecturer Dept. of Business Administration Leading University, Sylhet, Bangladesh. Prepared By: Md. Inzamam-Ul Haq Talukder ID. # 1101010342 Section: E 7th Semester (27th Batch) Leading University, Sylhet, Bangladesh D ATE OF SUBMISSION: APRIL 21, 2013 i Declaration This assignment paper has been prepared by myself which is the title â€Å"Negotiable Instruments in Banking† under the supervision of Mr. S. M. Athiqur Rahman, Lecturer in Dept. f Business Administration, Leading University, Sylhet, Bangladesh. The duplication of this paper is prohibited without the permission of Author. Author Md. Inzamam-Ul Haq Talukder ID. # 1101010342 7th Semester (27th Batch) Leading University, Sylhet, Bangladesh ii Acknowledgement I would like to acknowledge the contributions of the individuals to the development of this assignment paper: Our clas s peer research group for the cooperation and camaraderie. I am also heartily thankful to my course teacher, Mr. S. M. Athiqur Rahman, Lecturer in Dept. f Business Administration, whose encouragement, guidance and support from the initial to the final level enabled me to develop an understanding of the subject. To my truly great friend Tanvir who has made available his support in a number of ways. Lastly, I offer my regards and blessings to all of those who supported us in any respect during the completion of the project. Md. Inzamam-Ul Haq Talukder Dept. of Business Administration ID. # 1101010342 iii Contents Sl. i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. vii. Chapters Contents Name Abstract Page Number 1 2-4 5 – 16 17 – 18 19 – 20 21 – 22 23First Chapter Second Chapter Third Chapter Fourth Chapter Fifth Chapter Introduction General Context of the Study Data Collection and Limitation Result and Discussion Conclusion References iv Abstract Negotiable instruments are mainly governed by state statutory law. Every state has adopted Article 3 of the Uniform Commercial Code (UCC), with some modifications, as the law governing negotiable instruments. The UCC defines a negotiable instrument as an unconditioned writing that promises or orders the payment of a fixed amount of money. Drafts and notes are the two categories of instruments.A draft is an instrument that orders a payment to be made. An example is a check. A note is an instrument that promises that a payment will be made. Certificates of deposit (CD's) are notes. Drafts and notes are commonly used in business transactions to finance the movement of goods and to secure and distribute loans. To be considered negotiable an instrument must meet the requirements stated in Article 3. Negotiable instruments do not include money, payment orders governed by article 4A (fund transfers) or to securities governed by Article 8 (investment securities).The rule of derivative title, which is applicable in most area s of the law, does not allow a property owner to transfer rights in a piece of property greater than his own. If an instrument is negotiable this rule is suspended. A good faith purchaser, who does not have any knowledge of a defect in the title or claims against it, takes title to the instrument free of any defects or claims. In relation to the suspension of the rule of derivative title, Article 3 provides for warranties to protect the parties in transactions involving negotiable instruments.Checks are negotiable instruments but are mainly covered by Article 4 of the UCC. Secured transactions may contain negotiable instruments but are predominantly covered by Article 9 of the UCC. If there is a conflict between the Articles of the UCC both Article 4 and 9 govern over Article 3. 1 First chapter: Introduction 2 1. 1. Statement of The Study The word negotiable means ‘transferable by delivery’ and the word ‘instruments’ means a written document by which a righ t is created in favor of a person. Thus, the term negotiable instruments literally refer to a document containing rights that can be transferred by elivery. According to Section 13 (a) of the Act, â€Å"Negotiable instrument means a promissory note, bill of exchange or cheque payable either to order or to bearer, whether the word ‘order’ or ‘bearer’ appear on the instrument or not. † The rights that could be incorporated in negotiable instruments may be rights for payment of money arising out of various contracts such as the contract of loan, sale, lease, or any other contract performed by payment of a certain amount of money. Such rights may also arise from ownership in companies or loan made to the government or to a share company.The rights that are incorporated in negotiable instruments may be rights to receive goods under voyage or deposited in a warehouse. According to this provision, the holder of negotiable instruments can transfer the rights incorporated in the instrument by transferring the instrument. Similarly, a person who claims the rights incorporated in negotiable instruments may enforce or exercise them only if he has possession of the instrument, i. e. , he should be a holder to whom the instrument is issued or transferred following the rules governing its transfer.He must also present the instrument to the person who is supposed to perform the obligations arising out of the instrument. The fact that the rights incorporated in negotiable instruments may be transferred by the transfer of the instrument and the fact that a person may not exercise or enforce them unless he is in possession of the instrument are the two main features which distinguish negotiable instruments from other documents evidencing rights such as a title deeds whose transfer does not transfer the rights they establish.Another point that has to be noted here is that negotiable instruments are issued or negotiated based on other contracts. Fo r instance, a person may issue a bill of exchange to repay the money he has borrowed from the payee, the company issues a share certificate or debenture certificate as evidence of the person‘s right arising out of contract of partnership creating the company or a contract of loan respectively. The warehouse person or the carrier issues the warehouse goods deposit certificate or the bill of lading / consignment note based on contracts of warehousing or carriage respectively.Finally, the definition of negotiable instruments under the Ethiopian law is much wider than the one adopted by most legal systems, particularly those following the Common Law tradition. This is evident from the Uniform Commercial Code of the United States and the Bill of Exchanges Act of 1882, which restricts the concept to bills of exchange, cheques and promissory notes. 3 1. 2. Objectives of the Study Objective means the main reason or the main goals of the study. Here after this study we should be able t o- ? Understand meaning, essential characteristics and types of negotiable instruments; ?Describe the meaning and marketing of cheques, crossing of cheques and cancellation of crossing of a cheque; ? Explain capacity and liability parties to a negotiable instruments; and ? Understand various provisions of negotiable instrument Act, 1881 regarding negotiation, assignment, endorsement, acceptance, etc. of negotiable instruments. 4 Second chapter: General Context of the Study 5 2. 1. Literature Review The term, negotiable instrument means a written document which creates a right in favor of some person and which is freely transferable.Although the Act mentions only these three instruments (such as a promissory note, a bill of exchange and cheque), it does not exclude the possibility of adding any other instrument which satisfies the following two conditions of negotiability: a) the instrument should be freely transferable (by delivery or by endorsement. and delivery) by the custom of t he trade; and b) the person who obtains it in good faith and for value should get it free from all defects, and be entitled to recover the money of the instrument in his own name.A negotiable instrument is a document which includes a promise to pay a set sum of money to the bearer of the document either on demand or on a given date. The instrument can be freely transferred without the need to notify the person from whom it originated. Negotiable instruments are used to enable trade, because without them, people would be obliged to exchange money in person for all sorts of transactions, and this would quickly become unsafe in addition to unwieldy.One simple example of a negotiable instrument is a check. A check is written out to the bearer for a specific amount. The bearer can take the check to a bank and deposit it, thereby transferring the obligation to the bank. The bearer can also sign the check over to someone else, another example of a transfer. Checks also demonstrate another important property of negotiable instruments, which is that people need to have them in hand to redeem or negotiate them. If the document is lost, it cannot be called upon.As such, documents like share warrants payable to bearer, debentures payable to bearer and dividend warrants are negotiable instruments. But the money orders and postal orders, deposit receipts, share certificates, bill of lading, dock warrant, etc. are not negotiable instruments. Although they are transferable by delivery and endorsements, yet they are not able to give better title to the bona fide transferee for value than what the transferor has. 6 2. 2. Characteristics of a Negotiable Instrument A negotiable instrument has the following characteristics: ? Property:The possessor of the negotiable instrument is presumed to be the owner of the property contained therein. A negotiable instrument does not merely give possession of the instrument but right to property also. The property in a negotiable instrument ca n be transferred without any formality. In the case of bearer instrument, the property passes by mere delivery to the transferee. In the case of an order instrument, endorsement and delivery are required for the transfer of property. ? Title: The transferee of a negotiable instrument is known as ‘holder in due course. A bona fide transferee for value is not affected by any defect of title on the part of the transferor or of any of the previous holders of the instrument. ? Rights: The transferee of the negotiable instrument can sue in his own name, in case of dishonor. A negotiable instrument can be transferred any number of times till it is at maturity. The holder of the instrument need not give notice of transfer to the party liable on the instrument to pay. ? Presumptions: Certain presumptions apply to all negotiable instruments e. g. , a presumption that consideration has been paid under it.It is not necessary to write in a promissory note the words ‘for value receive d’ or similar expressions because the payment of consideration is presumed. The words are usually included to create additional evidence of consideration. ? Prompt Payment: A negotiable instrument enables the holder to expect prompt payment because a dishonor means the ruin of the credit of all persons who are parties to the instrument. 7 2. 3. The Nature and Purpose of Negotiable Instruments Negotiable instruments represent one form of property rights, i. e. exercised over incorporeal things â€Å"chose in action. † In other words, they are property rights in relation to objects of property which do not have physical or material existence and hence which cannot be perceived by the senses. A right of action under contract is a class of property known as ‘chose in action’ and can be distinguished from a corporeal movable property/ a ‘chose in possession’ which represent property rights exercised in relation to objects which have material or phy sical existence and hence can be perceived by the senses such as a book, a table or a watch.A holder of this type of property right must have actual possession of the object to exercise rights arising there from. Rights incorporated in negotiable instruments, rights of an inventor arising out of a grant of a patent in respect of his invention, rights of a copyrights holder, and rights of a trader in respect of his trademark, trade name and goodwill are instances of chose in action. Negotiable instruments also represent one kind of contract as every instrument embodies a contract or promise to pay a certain amount of money or to deliver goods according to terms agreed up on.As contracts, the general rules of contract shall apply unless they are specifically excluded from application by the special law applicable to negotiable instruments. As a result, the requirements necessary for the formation of a valid contract must be fulfilled for issuance of a valid and enforceable negotiable instrument. Hence, the parties who sign a negotiable instrument must have capacity under the law to enter into juridical acts, i. e. , minors and judicially interdicted persons may not create a valid contract through negotiable instruments.Furthermore, as a contract, any declaration or promise made on negotiable instruments must be accompanied by the signature of the person bound by such declaration or promise. Failure to comply with the requirements as to capacity and signature may be raised as a defense against any person who claims based on the instrument even against the holder in due course who, under other cases, is considered to be free from defenses available against the person who transferred the instrument to him. The parties must give their consent, which must be free from defects such as mistake, fraud, duress.The object of the contract must also be legal and possible. Where the contract does not fulfill requirements as to consent and object, a party affected may raise i t as a defense to avoid the contract and liability under the instrument. However, because of the special nature of these instruments, such defenses cannot be raised against a person, who acquires the instrument following the rules of transfer applicable to the instrument, and in good faith. 8 The main purpose of negotiable instruments is facilitation of commercial transactions.Commercial instruments are substitutes for money and are used as means of performance of money obligations. Dealing with them reduces the risk of loss or theft and the ease with which they can be transferred creates convenience which will in turn facilitate business. Transferable securities have the purpose of raising capital in the form of contributions made by purchase of shares and bonds, which is used for starting new businesses or expansion of existing businesses thereby increasing the production of goods and services in the country.A document of title to goods, whose negotiation transfers the goods repre sented by them, creates convenience and facilitates transactions involving the goods. For instance, a person selling warehoused goods can do so by endorsing and transferring the certificate of deposit and without the need to actually deliver the objects. When we come to the specific purposes of commercial instruments, promissory notes can be used as means of borrowing money, buying goods and services on credit and as method of evidencing a pre-existing debt.Certificates of deposit can be used as a device for encouraging individuals to deposit funds in banks; in return the holder of the certificate has the right to receive interest. Bills of exchange on the other hand have the purpose of collecting accounts financing, the movement of goods, and transfer funds. Checks serve as â€Å"vehicles for transfer of money and also used to aid in keeping records, reduces the risk of loss and destruction and theft of currencies. † 9 2. 4.Types of Negotiable Instrument Section 13 of the Ne gotiable Instruments Act states that a negotiable instrument is a promissory note, bill of exchange or a cheque payable either to order or to bearer. Negotiable instruments recognized by statute are: (i) Promissory notes (ii) Bills of exchange (iii) Cheques. Negotiable instruments recognized by usage or custom are: (i) Hundis (ii) Share warrants (iii) Dividend warrants (iv) Bankers draft (v) Circular notes (vi) Bearer debentures (vii) Debentures of Bombay Port Trust (viii) Railway receipts (ix) Delivery orders. 2. 4. 1.Promissory Notes Section 4 of the Act defines, â€Å"A promissory note is an instrument in writing (note being a bank-note or a currency note) containing an unconditional undertaking, signed by the maker, to pay a certain sum of money to or to the order of a certain person, or to the bearer of the instruments. † Essential elements: 1. It must be in writing 2. It must certainly an express promise or clear understanding to pay 3. Promise to pay must be unconditio nal 4. It should be signed by the maker 5. The maker must be certain 6. The payee must be certain 7. The promise should be to pay money and money only 8.The amount should be certain; and 9. Other formalities regarding number, place, date, consideration etc. 10 2. 4. 2. Bill of Exchange Section 5 of the Act defines, â€Å"A bill of exchange is an instrument in writing containing an unconditional order, signed by the maker, directing a certain person to pay a certain sum of money only to, or to the order of a certain person or to the bearer of the instrument†. A bill of exchange, therefore, is a written acknowledgement of the debt, written by the creditor and accepted by the debtor. There are usually three parties to a bill of exchange drawer, acceptor or drawer and payee.Drawer himself may be the payee. Essential conditions of a bill of exchange: 1. It must be in writing. 2. It must be signed by the drawer. 3. The drawer, drawee and payee must be certain. 4. The sum payable mu st also be certain. 5. It should be properly stamped. 6. It must contain an express order to pay money and money alone. 7. The order must be unconditional. Bills can be classified as: ? Inland and foreign bills. ? Time and demand bills. ? Trade and accommodation bills. 2. 4. 3. Cheques Section 6 of the Act defines â€Å"A cheque is a bill of exchange drawn on a specified banker, and not expressed to be payable otherwise than on demand†.A cheque is bill of exchange with two more qualifications, namely, (i) it is always drawn on a specified banker, and (ii) it is always payable on demand. Consequently, all cheques are bill of exchange, but all bills are not cheque. A cheque must satisfy all the requirements of a bill of exchange; that is, it must be signed by the drawer, and must contain an unconditional order on a specified banker to pay a certain sum of money to or to the order of a certain person or to the bearer of the cheque. It does not require acceptance. 11Specimen of a Cheque ABC Bank Date_____________ Pay ‘A;——————————————————————————–or the bearer sum of rupees———————————————————————————only. Rs——-/A/c No———LF—–Sd/No——————— Distinction between Bills of Exchange and Cheque: 1. A bill of exchange is usually drawn on some person or firm, while a cheque is always drawn on a bank. 2. It is essential that a bill of exchange must be accepted before its payment can be claimed a cheque does not require any such acceptance. . A cheque can only be drawn payable on demand, a bill may be also drawn payable on demand, or on the expiry of a certain period after date or sight. 4. A grace of three days is allowed in the case of time bills while no grace is given in the case of a cheque. 5. The drawer of the bill is discharged from his liability, if it is not presented for payment, but the drawer of a cheque is discharged only if he suffers any damage by delay in presenting the cheque for payment. 6. Notice of dishonor of a bill is necessary, but no such notice is necessary in the case of cheque. . A cheque may be crossed, but not needed in the case of bill. 8. A bill of exchange must be properly stamped, while a cheque does not require any stamp. 9. A cheque drawn to bearer payable on demand shall be valid but a bill payable on demand can never be drawn to bearer. 10. Unlike cheques, the payment of a bill cannot be countermanded by the drawer. 12 2. 4. 4. Hundis A â€Å"Hundi† is a negotiable instrument written in an oriental language. The term hundi includes all indigenous negotiable instruments whether they be in the form of notes or bills.The word ‘hundi’ is said to be derived from the Sanskrit word ‘hundi’, which means â€Å"to collect†. They are quite popular among the Indian merchants from very old days. They are used to finance trade and commerce and provide a fascicle and sound medium of currency and credit. Hundis are governed by the custom and usage of the locality in which they are intended to be used and not by the provision of the Negotiable Instruments Act. In case there is no customary rule known as to a certain point, the court may apply the provisions of the Negotiable Instruments Act.It is also open to the parties to expressly exclude the applicability of any custom relating to hundis by agreement (lndur Chandra vs. Lachhmi Bibi, 7 B. I. R. 682). 2. 5. Parties to Negotiable Instruments 2. 5. 1. a) b) c) d) 2. 5. 2. a) b) c) d) e) f) g) h) i) 2. 5. 3. a) b) c) d) Parties to a Promissory Note Maker Payee Holder The indorser and indorsee (the same as in the case of a bill) Parties to Bill of Exchange Drawer Drawee Acceptor Payee Indorser Indorsee Holder Drawee in case of need Acceptor for honor Parties to a Cheque Drawer Drawee Payee The holder, indorser and indorsee (the same as in the case of a bill or note). 3 2. 6. Functions of Negotiable Instruments Negotiable instruments serve the following functions: ? Substitute for money ? Credit device ? Record-keeping device Most purchases by businesses and many individuals are made by negotiable instruments instead of cash. 2. 7. Endorsement The word ‘endorsement’ in its literal sense means, writing on the back of an instrument. But under the Negotiable Instruments Act it means, the writing of one’s name on the back of the instrument or any paper attached to it with the intention of transferring the rights therein.Thus, endorsement is signing a negotiable instrument for the purpose of negotiation. The person who effects an endorsement is called an ‘endorser’, and the person to whom negotiable instrument is transferred by endorsement is called the ‘endorsee’. Essentials of a valid endorsement: The following are the essentials of a valid endorsement: 1. It must be on the instrument. The endorsement may be on the back or face of the instrument and if no space is left on the instrument, it may be made on a separate paper attached to it called allonage. It should usually be in ink. 2.It must be made by the maker or holder of the instrument. A stranger cannot endorse it. 3. It must be signed by the endorser. Full name is not essential. 4. It may be made either by the endorser merely signing his name on the instrument (it is a blank endorsement) or by any words showing an intention to endorse or transfer the instrument to a specified person (it is an endorsement in full). 5. It must be completed by delivery of the instrument. The delivery must be made by the en dorser himself or by somebody on his behalf with the intention of passing property therein. 6.It must be an endorsement of the entire bill. A partial endorsement i. e. which purports to transfer to the endorse a part only of the amount payable does not operate as a valid endorsement. If delivery is conditional, endorsement is not complete until the condition is fulfilled. 14 The payee of an instrument is the rightful person to make the first endorsement. Thereafter the instrument may be endorsed by any person who has become the holder of the instrument. The maker or the drawer cannot endorse the instrument but if any of them has become the holder thereof he may endorse the instrument (Sec. 51).The maker or drawer cannot endorse or negotiate an instrument unless he is in lawful possession of instrument or is the holder there of. A payee or indorsee cannot endorse or negotiate unless he is the holder there of. 2. 8. Dishonor of a Negotiable Instrument When a negotiable instrument is d ishonored, the holder must give a notice of dishonor to all the previous parties in order to make them liable. A negotiable instrument can be dishonored either by non-acceptance or by non-payment. A cheque and a promissory note can only be dishonored by non-payment but a bill of exchange can be dishonored either by nonacceptance or by non-payment. . 8. 1. Dishonor by non-acceptance (Section 91) A bill of exchange can be dishonored by non-acceptance in the following ways: 1. If a bill is presented to the drawee for acceptance and he does not accept it within 48 hours from the time of presentment for acceptance. When there are several drawees even if one of them makes a default in acceptance, the bill is deemed to be dishonored unless these several drawees are partners. 2. When the drawee is a fictitious person or if he cannot be traced after reasonable search. 3.When the drawee is incompetent to contract, the bill is treated as dishonored. 4. When a bill is accepted with a qualified acceptance, the holder may treat the bill of exchange having been dishonored. 5. When the drawee has either become insolvent or is dead. 6. When presentment for acceptance is excused and the bill is not accepted. 15 2. 8. 2. Dishonor by non-payment (Section 92) A bill after being accepted has got to be presented for payment on the date of its maturity. If the acceptor fails to make payment when it is due, the bill is dishonored by nonpayment.In the case of a promissory note if the maker fails to make payment on the due date the note is dishonored by non-payment. A cheque is dishonored by non-payment as soon as a banker refuses to pay. An instrument is also dishonored by non-payment when presentment for payment is excused and the instrument when overdue remains unpaid (Sec 76). 2. 9. Working Definitions ? Negotiable means transferable. The negotiation that goes on refers to the transfer of the instrument between two people, or from one bank to another, or even from one country to ano ther. In the broadest sense, almost any agreed-upon medium of exchange could be considered a negotiable instrument. In day-to-day banking, a negotiable instrument usually refers to checks, drafts, bills of exchange, and some types of promissory notes. ? A Negotiable Instrument is a written order promising to pay a sum of money. ? Banking is the business activity of accepting and safeguarding money owned by other individuals and entities, and then lending out this money in order to earn a profit. 16 Third chapter: Data Collection and Limitation 17 3. 1. Sources of the Data Secondary Sources: For making this study paper, I have collected necessary data from various secondary sources, where data already exists. Because it is cheaper to use and easy to find than having to carry out the research again. Secondary information such as definitions, instruments insights and functions were collected from books of different authors, internet articles and various researches. 3. 2. Limitations of the Data Collection Every study, no matter how well it is conducted has some limitations. When making this assignment, there were also some unavoidable limitations.First, because of the limited time limit, this study was conducted only on a small amount of data. Therefore, this study is little less informative. Also lack of required data. Lack of in-depth knowledge of the topic. Finally, the complexity of the study, as well as the scarcity of related information might decrease the performance of the research. 18 Fourth chapter: Result and Discussion 19 4. 1. Findings In this study I have found a lot of essential knowledge about Negotiable Instruments that are used in banking sectors. Some of them are given below? The instruments should be freely transferable.An instrument cannot be negotiable unless it is such and in such state that the true owner could transfer by simple delivery or endorsement and delivery. ? Negotiability involves two elements namely, transferability free from e quities and transferability by delivery or endorsement. ? The holder of the instrument is presumed to be the owner of the property contained in it. ? ? All Negotiable Instruments are freely transferable. The instrument is transferable till maturity and in case of cheques till it becomes stale (on the expiry of 6 months from the date of issue). Certain equal presumptions are applicable to all negotiable instruments unless the contrary is proved. ? Finally, every negotiable instrument was made or drawn for consideration irrespective of the consideration mentioned in the instrument or not. 20 Fifth chapter: Conclusion 21 5. 1. Final decision: In this study we have understood the concept of Negotiable Instruments and how different negotiable instruments are supporting Banking Sectors. A negotiable instrument is a piece of paper which entitles a person to a sum of money and which is transferable from one person to another by mere delivery or by endorsement and delivery.The characteristic s of a negotiable instrument are easy negotiability, transferee gets good title, and also transferee gets a right to sue in his own name and certain presumptions which apply to all negotiable instruments. There are two types of negotiable instruments (a) Recognized by statue: Promissory notes, Bill of exchange and cheques and (b) Recognized by usage: Hundis, Bill of lading, Share warrant, Dividend warrant, Railway receipts, Delivery orders etc.The parties to bill of exchange are drawer, drawee, acceptor, payee, indorser, indorsee, holder, drawee in case of need and acceptor for honor. The parties to a promissory note are maker, payee, holder, indorser and indorsee while parties to cheque are drawer, drawee, payee, holder, indorser and indorsee. Negotiation of an instrument is a process by which the ownership of the instrument is transferred by one person to another. There are two methods of negotiation: by mere delivery and by endorsement.In its literal sense, the term ‘indors ement’ means writing on an instrument but in its technical sense, under the Negotiable Instrument Act, it means the writing of a person’s name on the face or back of a negotiable instrument or on a slip of paper annexed thereto, for the purpose of negotiation. A bill may be dishonored by non-acceptance (since only bills require acceptance) or by non-payment, while a promissory note and cheque may be dishonored by non-payment only. Noting means recording of the fact of dishonor by a notary public on the bill or paper or both partly.Protest is a formal notarial certificate attesting the dishonor of the bill. The term ‘discharge’ in relation to negotiable instrument is used in two senses, viz. , (a) discharge of one or more parties from liability thereon, and (b) discharge of the instrument. 22 References Michael D. Floyd. â€Å"Mastering Negotiable Instruments: Ucc Articles 3 and 4 and Other Payment Systems (Mastering Series)†. Published Jun 30, 2008 Law of Negotiable Instruments, 6th edition 2007 – By Tan Peng Chin LLC Chapter 73 — Negotiable Instruments: http://www. eg. state. or. us/ors/073. html DocsFiles: http://docsfiles. com/pdf_ negotiab le_instruments. html Ethiopian Legal Brief: http://chilot. me/teaching-materials/insurance-banking-and-negotiable-instruments/ FindThatDoc: http://www. findthatdoc. com/search-95781382-hPDF/download-documents-bltch19pdf. htm Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: http://en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Negotiable_instrument Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: http://en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Negotiable_Instruments_Act,_1881 23

Finance Analysis Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

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Aligning AL Company with the Gramen Equipment Operations Essay

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Business IT operations Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

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Analyze the def-14a by JPMorgan of advanced corporate finance Term Paper

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Technical Architecture and Why Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

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Price Fixing and the FTC Essay Example for Free

Price Fixing and the FTC Essay The case was released in the mid-2006, where the Federal Trade Commission has declared that they are challenging the members of the Puerto Rico Association of Endodontists, Corporation or the PRAE (Commissions, 2006). This is because of alleged price-fixing collaborations that they would be charging on several insurance policies and dental services that they offer. They have collaborated and made agreements with 30 other competitors, wherein they fixed their prices at the expense of their consumers. Because of this, the FTC was forced to file a complaint against this company since it decreases the competition between these companies, thus higher costs will be imposed on the consumers. This is a clear violation of the Federal Trade Commission Act, Section number 5. In order for this matter to be resolved, The Puerto Rico Association of Endodontists, Corp. will have to refrain from involving in matters that promote anticompetitive conduct in the coming years.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Through this, the Federal Trade Commission will be able to make sure that these dental services and other necessary health care issues will be given and addressed for the consumers at prices that they could afford. Keeping a competitive environment in the aspect of health care will open up better opportunities for the people, along with lower competitive prices. Letting healthcare be monopolized will lead to higher pricing and less maintenance, and would really be a burden to the people, the consumers. That’s why these health care providers and producers should not act as one; they should not collaborate with each other in their pricing, because it takes away the aspect of competitiveness between them.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   The complaints against Puerto Rico Association of Endodontists, Corporation shows that in the year 2003, the company has already began its bargaining with their competitors, thus resulting to the drastic increase in five dental plans already. Another increase occurred during 2004, wherein the prices also went up because of their bargaining. Because of these actions the ones who were jeopardized were the people; they were the ones who carried the burden of increased rates, since these health care issues is a necessity for everyone. The Federal Trade Commission analyzed that these drastic changes in prices have no whatsoever effect on the quality of services offered by the company, thus the additional prices were not really justifiable. It doesn’t lead to a better quality of health care, thus, it is only a waste in the part of the consumers.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Given the situation, the Federal Trade Commission proposed a consent order which will be solve the problem at hand. This will hopefully relieve the impact of the alleged anticompetitive actions by the Puerto Rico Association of Endodontists, Corporation and further prevent it from happening again. It would then hinder the company to have any settlements or agreements with other endodontists and negotiate with any payor on the services that they offer, except properly arranged by the organization. Reference: Commissions, F. T. (2006). FTC Charges Puerto Rico Endodontists With Price Fixing.  Ã‚   Retrieved August 4, 2007, from http://www.ftc.gov/opa/2006/07/prendo.shtm

Cost Leadership Strategy For Tune Hotels Tourism Essay

Cost Leadership Strategy For Tune Hotels Tourism Essay As a business development manager of Tune hotel, I have been requested to propose and justify the implementation of an overall cost leadership strategy for Tune hotels.com. this proposal is consists of preparing a strategic service vision for Tune hotels.com by taking few aspects as a consideration into account, such as the target market segment, service concept, operating strategy and also the service delivery system as well. Besides that, I have been asked to identify what are the service dimensions in setting the benchmark for service qualifiers, service winners and service losers as well. Hotel overview Air Asia is a low cost carrier (LCC) airline, with the image of making flying feasible for everybody, where it is well known for the largest low fare and no frills airline, and Tune hotel is one of another luminous thought invented by the air Asias Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and also the founder of Air Asia as well, Datuk Tony Fernandes. Tune hotels have open its first no frills hotel branch in Jalan Tuanku Abdul Rahman,Kuala Lumpur on 9th april 2007. Tune Hotel is currently operating in places such as Malaysia, Downtown Penang, Kota Damansara, Kuala Lumpur, KLIA LCCT Airport, Johor, Kuching, Kota Kinabalu, Indonesia and United Kingdom and London as well. Question 1 Target market segment As in the context of a business, target market segment is an essential element which is needed to be considered and it is important in facilitating and directing the business path in the market. Target market segment, which is targeting the audience, is very important to sustain the survival of a business or industry as well. Tune hotel which has been categorized under the service industry and it can be considered as the market leader in the no frills budget hotel in Malaysia and South East Asia. Tune hotel has implemented a creative and innovative concept to be used in Malaysia, and they differ from their competitors since no any hotel or company has claims to be in the same market segment. Tune hotel has used the geographic segmentation dimensions to influence the market opportunity, for instance, tune hotel at Kuala Lumpur, Jalan Tuanku Abdul Rahman, which is known as the budget hotel which has the similar concept of no frills Air Asia Airlines,tune hotel also adapt the same concept where it is also the first no frills hotel in Asia as well. Tune hotel Kuala Lumpur are strategically located at the central of Kuala Lumpur in Jalan Tuanku Abdul Rahman, whereby it is close to major shopping, food and beverage outlets and entertainment areas. Moreover, the location is also convenient and facilities such as LRT and bused as well. (Anonmous, n.d) Swot analysis of tune hotel Strength Tune hotel has a great strength whereby they have a reward system to those customers who have done an advance booking service through internet with them. By introducing this system, tune hotel will be able to attract more customers and maintain those loyal customers in future as well. Besides that, Tune hotel have a great central location with facilities such as LRT and buses and it is nearby shopping areas, entertainment areas, and food and beverage areas as well. This attracts and encourages those customers, especially foreigners to choose Tune hotel as well. Moreover, Tune hotel are attractive with their pricing strategies as well, in situation where most of the Air Asia customers are those tune hotels loyal customers. Weakness Tune hotel has a very limited number of customers in the region who are conscious of the Tune hotel. This could be one of the weaknesses faced by Tune hotel. Tune hotel should be able to work on their advertising method and emphasis more on their service provided. Opportunity In order to gain the competitive market and be the first market leader in service industry, Tune hotel can be able to attract more customers by improving their marketing strategy effectively to gain the customers satisfaction and their support as well in future. Threat Tune hotel receives a high competition in the service industry since it has been unique in the industry. High Competition among competitors is one the biggest threat to tune hotel to sustain in the market in the future. Outsourcing is also one of the threat to Tune Hotel since other Hotels do provide facilities which tune Hotel doesnt provide, for instance other hotels have basis necessities of customer such as the boiler, drinking water and many more, meanwhile Tune hotel does not provide all this. Service concept Source: http://www.xm-msia.com/xm/tunehotels/facilities.asp Tune hotel is unique in providing their service, compared to their competitors, and they operate a limited service concept, where they only offer single and double room for its customers. They have 5 star beds provided in each rooms feature high quality spring mattress beds with basic needs such as pillows, pillowcase and bed sheets. Each of the room consists of attached private bathrooms together with heated power showers with the minimal room rates. Tune hotel are have a central and convenient and strategic location which is nearby to shopping areas, ATM services to withdrawal purposes, food and beverage such as kopitiam outlets and entertainment as well. Moreover, Tune hotel has 24-hour security facilities as well whereby it is secure and safe to be in the surroundings of the hotel. Operating strategy Tune hotel makes use of the outsourcing as their operating strategy to save the operation cost and to improve and get better output and efficiency of the hotel. For instance, Tune Hotel in Kuala Lumpur, the maintenance, Kopitiam, 7 eleven which is available for 24 hours, money changer kiosk, fast food outlets such as Subway, and CIMB ATM and bureau the change are certainly part of outsourcing. By implementing this operating strategy effectively, Tune Hotel have be able to save a huge amount of their cost and this eventually helped Tune Hotel to improve on better production and productivity effectively and efficiently of their hotel. ( Batcha, 2007). Service delivery system Source: http://www.scribd.com/doc/4089502/Tune-Hotel The service delivery system in Tune Hotel is overwhelming, and core and supplementary services provided are identified through the flower of service model. The service are divided into 2 main sections, where the information, order taking, billing and payment are categorized under the facilitating services, meanwhile consultation, housekeeping, hospitality and exception are categorized under the second section named as enhancing services. TUNE HOTELS STAKEHOLDERS Source: http://www.xm-msia.com/xm/tunehotels/about_us_3.asp Tune hotels sdn.bhd is 40% owned by Datuk Tony Fernandes, 30% by Dato Kamarudin Meranun, 25% by Dennis Melka and the rest 5% by Tune Strategic Investments Limited. Tune Ventures Sdn Bhd owns 72.19% stake in tune hotels, followed by Dato Kalimullah Hassan which now the chairman of ECM avenue which is one of the listed Malaysian investment bank owns 12.03% stake in tune hotels, Lim Kian Onn the chairman of ECM avenue, also owns the same percentage as Dato Kalimullah Hassan 12.03%, and lastly followed by tune hotels employee holding sdn bhd where the company is formely owned by the key employees of tune hotel owns 3.75% stake in tune hotels as well. Question 2 Service qualifiers Tune hotel is classified to be the service qualifier since it is providing a good service which meets the requirements of a consumer. For instance, tune hotel has a clean environment around, whereby they provide housekeeping services to make sure the consumers feels safe and clean with the surrounding environment. Moreover, Tune hotel are concerned with the safety as well, where they have the 24 hour security system applied, whereby they uses electronic key card to access into rooms, CCTV cameras services, round- the- clock on duty reception staff and no access to the main lobby without a keycard pass midnight.(anonymous, 2007) Moreover, tune hotel also has introduced tune hotel insurance only in Malaysia, and said to be globally soon. Those insurance are not only responsible for the lost of travel documents, but also has take the responsibilities of being cautious of guests personal accident, medical expenses and also delayed check in as well.(anonymous, n.d). Service winners Service winners are those competitive dimensions used to make the final choice among competitors, for instance is the price. The pricing strategy of Tune hotel is from the range of RM 9.90. Tune hotels price will be different during peak seasons, promotion seasons and also a different price range for the advance booking as well. Service loser When tune hotel fails to deliver the needs and wants of the customer, they might entitle to be the service loser. Service loser occurs when there is a failure to meet the expectations of what customer actually wants. Tune hotel should be able to implement new marketing strategy as Tune Hotel is having a high competition among its competitors which is a threat to them. Question 3 Porters generic strategies Source: http://www.quickmba.com/strategy/generic.shtml Tune hotel has adopt the cost leadership strategy overall. This cost leadership strategy mainly emphasis on the low cost producer in the industry. Setting price low sometimes might influence the way of thinking of a customer, where low price may give a negative perception of the quality and the brand image of the company itself. For instance, there are not many out there are aware about Tune hotel and its services, since it is new in the market. This is mainly because the strategy used to representation about Tune hotel is done ineffectively. Tune hotel should come up with an effective strategy to expose their brand name by having advertisement about its service and facilities provided to attract not only the Air Asias customers, but also to the locals and foreigners who travel frequently. Placing Tune hotel in a strategic location with the lower price is valuable, but it should also be a place where customers feel flexible and convenient with the environment as well. Tune hotel in Kuala Lumpur, Jalan Tuanku Abdul Rahman where it is a location which is popular with prohibited immigrations and place where they gather together. The place is nearer to the place where most of the time it is famous with prostitution, drugs and offense are indivisible. This might not guarantee the safety at times and it could be one of the main problem customers will have a choice to choose other hotels as their choice. Tune hotel can improve this by making a deep study and research about those place and plan the location as well to avoid those circumstances occur. Moreover, Tune hotel has limited services where they dont provide the basis necessities such as boiler, drinking water and so on. Tune hotel save cost on this, but yet it should not be limited in providing the services since its known as the budget hotel. Tune hotel can improve on their service provided to enhance the satisfaction of the customers and maintain its competitive advantage than its competitors. Conclusion Overall, Tune hotel has been taking the efforts to reach the audience by implementing the no frills concept hotel. Since it is still new in the market, Tune hotel should implement new ideas to expose its brand name and win the local consumers perception as well to adopt their name as well.

Effect on Trade Flows of Regional Trade Agreements

Effect on Trade Flows of Regional Trade Agreements Abstract This paper studies the effect on trade flows of RTAs signed between developing economies. It uses a variation of the gravity model of trade to asses five RTAs: Mercosur, The Andean Community, SICA, the EU, Chile-China. Contents Abstract iii List of Figures vi List of Tables vi List of Formulas vi 1. Introduction viii 1.1Background viii 1.2 Problem definition x 1.3 Research Objective x 1.3.1 Major research question x 1.3.2 Minor research question xi 1.4 Theoretical Framework xi 1.4.1 The Gravity model of trade xi 1.4.2 Research Methodology and Design xii 1.4.3 Research Assumptions xii 1.4.4 Research Limitations xii 1.5 Thesis Structure xiii 2. Literature Review xiii 2.1 Trade Creation and Trade Diversion xiv 2.1.1 Trade Creation xiv 2.1.2 Trade Diversion xvii 2.1.3 Gross Trade Creation xviii 2.2 Empirical Evidence from SS RTAs xx 3.Theoretical Framework and Research Methodology xxi 3.1 Theoretical Framework xxi 3.1.1 Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building xxi 3.1.2 Regression Model Diagnosis xxii 3.1.3 The Gravity Model of Trade xxiii 3.1.4 Research Assumptions xxvii 3.1.5 Research Limitations xxvii 3.2 Research Methodology xxvii 3.2.1 Research Type and Approach xxvii 3.2.2 Data Collection xxx 4. Findings and Results xxxi 4.1 The effect of RTAs xxxi 5. Conclusions xxxiii 6. Appendix xxxiv 7. References xxxvii List of Figures Figure 1 Trade Creation. Figure 2 Trade Diversion Figure 3 Trade Creation Proper vrs. Gross Trade Creation Figure 4 Multiple regression hyperplane List of Tables Table 1 Dummy Variable Interpretation.. Table 2 RTAs assessed and Members Table 3 Regression results of individual years Table 4 Regression results of PCS List of Formulas Formula 1 Gravity model equation Formula 2 Log linear form of the gravity model Formula 3 Current gravity specifications.. Abbreviations CGE: Computable General Equilibrium COMESA: Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa FTA: Free Trade Agreement GATT: General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GDP: Gross Domestic Product MERCOSUR: Mercado ComÃÆ' ºn del Sur RTA signed between Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay NAFTA: North American Free Trade Agreement OLS: Ordinary Least Squares PCS: Pooled Cross-Section PTA: Preferential Trade Agreement RIA: Regional Integration Agreement RTA: Regional Trade Agreement SICA: Sistema de IntegraciÃÆ' ³n Centro Americana RTA between Honduras, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua Panama and Belize SS: South-South UNCTAD: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development WB: World Bank WITS: World Integrated Trade Solution WTO: World Trade Organization 1. Introduction Background Four hundred and sixty two RTAs have been notified to the WTO up to February 2010 (WTO,2010). From 1948-1994 the GATT received one hundred and twenty four notifications of RTAs, and since its creation in 1995, the WTO has received over 300 RTA notifications, (WTO,2010). This trend of forming trading blocs is likely to become stronger as more RTAs are currently under negotiation. Of particular interest to economists, and the focus of this paper, are South-South RTAs, that is, RTAs signed between countries of low income levels. There are reasons to believe that SS RTAs may not only fail to stimulate economic growth among member countries, but also hinder growth for these countries. In their book Regional Integration and Development, Winters and Schiffer (2003) state that there is some evidence that North-South RTAs stimulate economic growth in the southern partner, little evidence that North-North RTAs stimulate growth and NO evidence that South-South RTAs do so. Specifically they argue that SS RTAs do not provide partners with access to technology or knowledge that is characteristic of rich countries; SS RTAs are unlikely to add credibility to government policies and may even hinder investment if not accompanied by liberalization of trade with the rest of the world; and, SS RTAs are likely to generate only trade diversion and no trade creation Mayda and Steinberg (2006) argue that SS RTAs are unlikely to provide the positive effects of competition and economies of scale because partner countries are both small and poor. In addition, the loss of fiscal revenues harms the member country economies and finally, SS RTAs are more likely to divert trade rather than create trade. Willmore (1976) and Nicholls (1998) make similar points using the Central American Common Market as an example. Trade creation and trade diversion are concepts that were introduced by Jacob Viner in 1950. Both terms refer to the redirection of trade flows as a consequence of an RTA. In trade creation, goods that were previously produced by a local economy are instead imported from more efficient producers in countries within the RTA. Trade diversion refers to the redirecting of trade from the more efficient producer to a less efficient producer within the RTA. In both cases, trade creation and trade diversion, the trade flows are affected by the reduction of tariffs to member countries typical of RTAs. Trade creation and trade diversion are explained with more detail in section 2.1 of this paper. A number of studies have been conducted to assess the effects of SS RTAs in partner countries -most of them attempt to determine if the RTAs were trade creating or trade diverting e.g. Evans (1998), Lewis et al. (1999), Flores (1997), Cernat (2001,2003)), Subramanian and Tamirisa (2001), Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods have been used and the results are mixed. As a reference, this paper focuses on the results of Cernat (2001, 2003), Flores (1997), and Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods were used in these studies and the results were mixed. Cernat (2001) used the log-linear form of the gravity equation to assess nine SS RTAs. He finds evidence that suggests that SS RTAs are less trade diverting than theoretically predicted. Cernat (2001) findings suggest that Mercosur and the Andean Community were overall, trade diverting. On the other hand Flores (1997), using a CGE analysis, concluded that Mercosur was trade creating. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) use a difference-in-difference estimation strategy at commodity level to assess the impact of COMESA on Ugandan imports. They present evidence that South-South trade agreements create positive but little economic gains, through changes in trade patterns, for their members. This is different from Cernat (2001) results, which indicate that imports into COMESA members from third countries were on average 30 per cent higher than those predicted without the trade diversion dummy variable. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) find evidence that no trade diversion takes place in COMESA. The mixed results from these studies, the increasing number of SS RTAs underway and the high number of countries wanting to join completely or in part in these RTAs poses the following questions: Why do policy makers from these countries advocate in favor of these RTAs? Should these RTAs be pursued?, and the still not categorically answered question: Are South-South Regional Trade Agreements trade creating or trade diverting? Using the gravity model, this paper aims to get evidence from SS RTAs from the Americas. 1.2 Problem definition Do South-South Regional Trade Agreements create trade or divert trade? The literature on this topic is vast and contradictory. Everybody thinks that SS-RTAs are trade diverting. Some papers present evidence of this. Other present evidence that they are actually trade creating. Finally others find evidence of very little trade creation and no significant evidence of trade diversion. With so many RTAS in place and many others underway, it is important to understand the effects of creating these trade blocs. Should poor countries pursue RTAs with poor countries? Are SS RTAs building blocks or stumbling stones towards the world liberalization of trade? 1.3 Research Objective The main objective of this paper is to determine if MERCOSUR, Andean Community, and SICA were trade creating or trade diverting in the years 1995, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2007. 1.3.1 Major research question Is there significant evidence of trade creation or trade diversion on the years 1995,1998,1999,2003,2007 for Mercosur, Andean Community and SICA? 1.3.2 Minor research question Is there significant evidence that suggests that RTA members of the above mentioned RTAs increased trade between them and their partners? Is there significant evidence that suggests that members of the above mentioned RTAs increased trade between them and third countries? Is there significant evidence that suggests that the increase in trade between RTA partners of the above mentioned RTAs is higher than the decrease in trade between RTA members and third countries? 1.4 Theoretical Framework 1.4.1 The Gravity model of trade The gravity model uses Newtonian gravity principles to study human behavior. It is widely used by economists and social scientists to predict flows of trade, people, goods, money, and other variables as an effect of changes in economic policies, fiscal policies, new laws, bans and other distortions to the flow of a given variable. The original gravity model of trade assumes that two countries will trade more or less depending on the sizes of their economies and the distance between their economic centers. It was created independently by Tinbergen (1962) and PÃÆ' ¶yhÃÆ' ¶nen (1963) and augmented in later years to include other independent variables that may cause a change in trade flows. These augmented versions of the basic gravity model may include: population of the two countries, presence of common borders, same language, common colonizer, and others that the researcher regards as relevant. The gravity model specifications used in this paper are similar to those of Cernat(2001) and Cheng Hall (2003). These specifications are used to run OLS regressions on trade data of 1995, 1998, 1998, 2003 and 2007. One set of pooled data including the years mentioned is analyzed using the same gravity specifications. The results of these regressions provide evidence of gross trade creation and diversion as specified by Balassa (1967) 1.4.2 Research Methodology and Design The paper uses standard OLS analysis, with bilateral imports as a dependent variable and 17 independent variables: GDP of the importing country, GDP of the exporting country, Population of the importing country and population of the exporting country, distance between the capital cities of each country pair, Intra_x dummy variable for each RTA, Extra_x dummy variable for each RTA. The values of GDPs, distance and populations are used in their logarithmic form. GDPs and population data was collected from the WB databank. Trade data was collected from UNCTADs database using the WB banks WITS application. 1.4.3 Research Assumptions Costs of transportation are proportional to the great circle distance between economic centers of countries studied All countries have one economic center, namely their capital cities. The error coefficient of the log-linear gravity model used in this paper is normally distributed with a mean of zero and constant variance for all observations. It is also assumed that error pairs are uncorrelated. GDPs, population, and trade data collected belongs to the population 1.4.4 Research Limitations 1.5 Thesis Structure The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents a literature review that explains trade creation and trade diversion, the effect of both and findings of previous papers that assess RTAs. Chapter 3 explains the gravity model used on the paper, how data was collected and organized, and the considerations in analyzing data. Chapter 4 summarizes the findings and Chapter 5 concludes. 2. Literature Review There is extensive literature on RTAs. This literature either predicts the effects of a RTAs using a computable-general equilibrium analysis or they measure the effects of an FTA using aggregate data or commodity level data. The concern of most authors, and the reason why they conduct their research, is that FTAs and specially SS FTAs may divert trade rather than create it. In the former case, purchases from an efficient producing country are replaced by purchases of a less efficient FTA partner. This section serves three purposes: 1. It explains trade creation and trade diversion to the reader so she can better understand the methodology used to assess the selected RTAs. 2. It presents the reader with the results of previous findings so that the reader can compare the results of this paper with previous results of other authors. 3. It gross trade creation and diversion so that the reader can understand the results of the research. 2.1 Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Trade creation and trade diversion as defined by Viner (1950), refer to changes in flow of trade between nations. Trade creation happens when trade is switched from less efficient producers of one country to more efficient producers in another country a better allocation of resources. In trade diversion trade is shifted from more efficient producers in one country to less efficient producers in another country -a worsening in the allocation of resources. 2.1.1 Trade Creation Trade creation can be defined as the net welfare gain that results from the initiation of an RTA, both on the production and on the consumption side. Some economists though, think that it is more precise to think of trade creation only as the increase in welfare from the production side (Senior-Nello S, 2010). In this paper the former definition of welfare is considered. To understand trade creation, imagine the following scenario (Figure 1): The country in question, Country X, say Honduras, imports product Q from country M (United States) at price Pw+t, which includes an ad valorem tax and is the same price offered by other nations in the world, including country E (El Salvador). At this price, Honduras imports 20 units and consumes 60. The remaining 40 units are imported from the US. This is illustrated by the Honduran supply and demand lines in Figure 1 and the perfectly elastic supply curve with free trade of El Salvador. It is understood that a change in Honduran imports of product Q cannot affect the world price of product Q. Figure 1. Trade Creation If Honduras signed an RTA with El Salvador and the price of product Q from El Salvador dropped to PE, Honduras would now produce 10 units of product Q, consume 70, and import the difference of 60 units. Because El Salvador now offers a lower price for product Q, Honduras now imports this product from El Salvador and not from the US. The consumer surplus gains of this RTA are represented by areas a+b+c+d. The loss in producer surplus is indicated by area a. The loss of tariff revenue for Honduras is area c. Therefore the net welfare increase of this RTA between El Salvador and Honduras is indicated by triangles b and d. Triangle b represents the amount of production that was shifted from less efficient producers in Honduras to more efficient producers in El Salvador a better allocation of resources. Triangle d represents the increase in consumption of product Q. 2.1.2 Trade Diversion Trade Diversion is illustrated in figure 2. Again the supply and demand lines are those of Honduras for product Q. Line S1 and S2 are the perfectly elastic supply curves of USA and El Salvador respectively, and lines S1+t and S2+t are the tax inclusive supply curves of the same two countries. Figure 2. Trade Diversion Honduras imports product Q from the US at tax inclusive price Pw+t. El Salvador offers product Q at price PE+t and thus does not benefit from Honduran purchases. At price Pw+t Honduras produces 20 units, consumes 60, and imports 40 from the US. If Honduras and El Salvador now form an RTA and do not include the US, tariffs will be removed on imports from El Salvador but not from imports from the US. After forming the RTA Honduras would produce 10 million units, consume 80 million and import 60 million units of product Q from El Salvador at price PE. The RTA has diverted trade from more efficient producers in the US to less efficient producers in El Salvador, so there is a worsening in the allocation of resources. On the other hand 10 million units are now imported from El Salvador instead of being produced at home in Honduras. At the same time 40 million units that were previously imported from the US are now being imported from El Salvador. The welfare loss from trade diversion is reflected rectangle f. The 40 million units that were imported from more efficient producers in the US whose free trade price is $1.00 are now imported from El Salvador at $2.00. The welfare loss is $40 million. The welfare gain from the customs union is calculated as the areas of triangles b and d. Triangle b is the welfare gain in the production side: $5 million. Triangle d is the welfare gain in the consumption side: $10 million. The total impact on welfare as a result of the RTA is given by the sum of the areas of triangles b and d minus the area of rectangle f (b+d-f): welfare gain minus welfare loss. In this case the RTA generated a welfare loss of $25 million. Figure 2 illustrates that the idea of trade creation and trade diversion can be misleading. If, for example, the sum of areas of triangles b and d would be greater than the area of rectangle f, the RTA would cause a net welfare gain. In this scenario, although trade has been diverted from more efficient producers in one country to less efficient producers in another, the RTA increased welfare for the RTA signing country. 2.1.3 Gross Trade Creation Following the lead of Jacob Viner, Balassa (1967) evaluated the effects of the European Common Market with reference to its trade creating and trade diverting effect using Tinbergen (1962) and PÃÆ' ¶yhÃÆ' ¶nen (1963) model -the gravity model. In his work he developed model that captured substitution of less efficient domestic and foreign suppliers for more efficient foreign suppliers gross trade creation; which is different than Viners definition of trade creation according to which trade is created only at the expense of local producers. To illustrate the difference gross trade creation and trade creation proper as defined by Viner (1950), consider three trading partners of one particular product countries A, B, and C, product Q (See Figure 3). Before signing a RTA with country B, Country A imports product Q from both, Country B and Country C in equal amounts and has 4 local producers of the same product (Figure 3a). In the case of trade creation proper (Figure 3b), after signing a RTA with country B, Country A continues to import equal amounts of product Q from countries B and C but has reduced the number of local producers of the same product. More efficient producers in Country B have absorbed market share from local producers in Country A trade creation proper. Gross trade creation on the other hand (Figure 3c), considers that trade is created not only when local producers are substituted, but also when producers in third countries are substituted. In this case, after signing a RTA with country B, Country A decreases its imports of product Q from Country C and increases imports of the same product from Country B while keeping the same number of local producers. It is important to note that gross trade creation assumes that substituted producers in Country C were less efficient than producers in country B; the contrary would constitute trade diversion. Figure 3. Trade Creation Proper vrs Gross Trade Creation Like in Cernat (2001), this paper evaluates the gross trade creating effects of the assessed RTAs. In his paper, Balassa (1967) provides evidence of trade creation in the European Common Market during six years since the Markets establishment. Again, trade creation applies to the substitution of any less efficient producer for a more efficient one, independent of the producers base country. The why of the expected differences between the results of developed country RTAs and SS RTAs is explained in the next section. 2.2 Empirical Evidence from SS RTAs A number of studies have been conducted to assess the effects of SS RTAs in partner countries -most of them attempt to determine if the RTAs were trade creating or trade diverting e.g. Evans (1998), Lewis et al. (1999), Flores (1997), Cernat (2001), Subramanian and Tamirisa (2001), Cernat (2003), Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods have been used and the results are mixed. This paper uses methods similar to Cernat (2001) and Cheng Wall (2003). In his paper, Cernat(2001) used the log-linear form of the gravity equation to asses nine SS RTAs. He finds evidence that suggests that SS RTAs are less trade diverting than theoretically predicted. Cernats(2001) findings suggest that Mercosur and the Andean Community were overall, trade diverting. Mayda and Steinberg(2006) use a difference-in-difference estimation strategy at commodity level to assess the impact of COMESA on Ugandan imports. They present evidence that South-South trade agreements create positive but little economic gains, through changes in trade patterns, for their members (Mayda and Steinberg, 2003). This is different from Cernats(2001) results, which indicate that imports into COMESA members from third countries were on average 30 per cent higher than those predicted without the trade diversion dummy variable. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) find evidence that no trade diversion takes place in COMESA. The mixed results from these studies, the increasing number of SS RTAs underway and the high number of countries wanting to join completely or in part in these RTAs poses the following questions: Why do policy makers from these countries advocate in favor of these RTAs? Should these RTAs be pursued?, and the still not categorically answered question: Are South-South Regional Trade Agreements trade creating or trade diverting? Using the gravity model, this paper aims to get evidence from SS RTAs from the Americas. Theoretical Framework and Research Methodology ***Intro*** Problem Definition Research Objective Research Questions 3.1 Theoretical Framework 3.1.1 Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building Figure 4. Regression Hyperplane Multiple regression analysis is a method of inferential statistics that measures the relationship between two or more independent variables and one dependent variable. The multiple regression model is given by: Where: y = dependent variable = regression constant of the population = regression coefficient for each variable xj=1,2,k k = number of independent variables = error of the model Different from a simple regression equation -which forms a straight line in a two-dimensional space to represent the linear relationship between two variables the multiple regression model forms a hyperplane in a multidimensional space (Figure 4). This hyperplane represents the relationship between the dependent variable and k independent variables. To build a multiple regression model, that is, to construct a mathematical equation that represents the relationship between independent and dependent variables, a researcher must decide: The question that needs to be answered The potential independent variables What is a representative sample of the population should be at least four times the number of independent variables (Groebner, et al, 2008) The model used in this paper is well known and widely used by social scientists to measure the flow of various types of variables. This model is explained in section 3.1.3. 3.1.2 Regression Model Diagnosis To ensure the significance of an OLS regression analysis results, the following evaluation criteria are usually used (Groebner, et al, 2008): The coefficient of determination (R2 and R2 adjusted) Significance of the overall model (F-test) Significance of individual variables (t-tests) Size of the standard deviation of the model Multicollinearity of variables The coefficient of determination measures the proportion of variation in the dependent variable that can be explained with the independent variables used by the model. The value of R2 may range from 0-1, with 1 representing a perfect linear relationship between dependent and independent variables. Higher values of R2 are preferred as they would indicate that the chosen independent variables explain better the variations in the dependent variables. A derivate indicator, called adjusted R2, takes into account the number of independent variables in the model, and their contribution the variations in the dependent variable. Because R2 increases when independent variables are added to the model, even if the new variables have no relationship with the dependent variable, adjusted R2 evaluates the model more precisely. The Significance of the overall model can be determined by comparing the Significance F value given in the regression output of a statistical software application, and the critical value for a given alpha level. The critical value for a given alpha level is determined using t-tables and statistical procedures explained in Groebner (2008). The Significance of individual variables is determined by comparing their calculated t-values with the critical t-value of the model. If their calculated t-values are greater than their critical t-values the variable is considered significant. To determine the critical t-values of independent variables, degrees of freedom need to be calculated and interpolated with the desired level of significance in a t-table. For detailed explanations see Groebner (2008). The size of the standard deviation of the model measures the dispersion of observed values of the dependent variable, and the predicted values for the same variable. It is up to the researcher to determine an acceptable range for the standard error estimation. Multicollinearity occurs when two variables provide overlapping information to explain the variation in the dependent variable. To measure multicollinearity the researcher can use the VIF as an indicator. Generally, if the VIF 3.1.3 The Gravity Model of Trade Following Isaac Newtons principle of gravity, according to which two bodies will attract each other more when their sizes are increased and the distance between them is shortened; the gravity model explains trade flow between two countries based on the size of their economies and the distance between their economic centers. The equation representation of the gravity model of trade is: (Formula 1) Where Fg represents trade flow, G is the constant, m1 and m2 are the economic dimensions of the two countries in question, and d is the distance between the two countries. In its basic log-linear form, the gravity equation is as follows: (Formula2) Where is the bilateral trade flow between countries i and j at time t, ÃŽÂ ± is the constant, is the natural logarithm of the GDP of country i, is the natural logarithm of the GDP of country j, is the natural logarithm of the distance between country i and country j, and ÃŽÂ µ is the normally distributed error. This basic gravity model is usually augmented by including other variables like adjacency, common language, colonial links, common currency, and RTA membership among others. Different authors have suggested many different specifications for the gravity model of trade  [1]  , however there is no consensus about which model specification is more accurate and serves best in assessing RTAs. Moreover other authors have suggested that the gravity model is biased due to endogeneity and reverse causality (Magee, 2003) and have led others to use entirely different methods to asses RTAs (Mayda Steinberg (2006). This paper uses a gravity model specification that is similar to Cernat (2001) but considers Cheng Walls (2003) suggestions of eliminating dummy variables that might capture unintended trade distorting variables. To assess trade creation and trade diversion in nine RTAs, Cernat(2001) adds two dummy variables to an already augmented specification of the model: Intra_RTA and Extra_RTA. The Intra_RTA dummy becomes a 1 when both, the importing and the exporting countries, are partners in the RTA being assessed by the two dummies. The Extra_RTA dummy becomes one when the importing country is part of the assessed RTA but the exporter is a third country. The model uses bilateral trade flows as a dependent variable and 18 independent variables: GDP of importing country, GDP of the exporting country, GDP per capita of the importing country, GDP per capita of the exporting country, Population of the importing country, population of the exporting country, distance between the capital cities of both countries, an adjacency dummy variable, a common language dummy variable, nine Intra_RTA dummy variables (one for each RTA assessed), and nine Extra_RTA dummy variables (one for each RTA assessed). All non-dummy variables expressed in their logarithmic form. In theory, the Intra_RTA dummies will capture the effect that the assessed RTA had on trade between partners of the RTA; and the Extra_RTA dummy captures the effect of the same RTA on trade of RTA members with third countries. To diagnose a RTA as trade crating or trade diverting, Cernat (2001) designed an Intra-Extra coefficient table (Table# in this paper). According to this table, if a trade agreement increased trade between its partners at the expense of third countries -diverted trade, the Intra_RTA dummy should be positive and the Extra_RTA dummy negative. If the agreement created trade instead, the coefficients of both dummies would be positive. Coefficient Extra_RTA Intra_RTA Sign + + Trade creation and trade expansion Trade diversion Trade expansion Trade contraction Table 1: Dummy Variable Interpretation Cheng Wall (2003) use a fixed-effect panel data analysis to measure the effect on trade of RTAs over time. Their proposed model allegedly controls the heterogeneity bias in the gravity model of trade. In it, Cheng Wall (2003) drop all dummy variables and even drop the distance variable. They argue that these variables bias the gravity model and they motivate their argument in a number of ways. First, they reason that economic distances are too hard to measure with accuracy because big countries have many economic centers, that are thousands of miles apart and that serve as trade centers for diffe Effect on Trade Flows of Regional Trade Agreements Effect on Trade Flows of Regional Trade Agreements Abstract This paper studies the effect on trade flows of RTAs signed between developing economies. It uses a variation of the gravity model of trade to asses five RTAs: Mercosur, The Andean Community, SICA, the EU, Chile-China. Contents Abstract iii List of Figures vi List of Tables vi List of Formulas vi 1. Introduction viii 1.1Background viii 1.2 Problem definition x 1.3 Research Objective x 1.3.1 Major research question x 1.3.2 Minor research question xi 1.4 Theoretical Framework xi 1.4.1 The Gravity model of trade xi 1.4.2 Research Methodology and Design xii 1.4.3 Research Assumptions xii 1.4.4 Research Limitations xii 1.5 Thesis Structure xiii 2. Literature Review xiii 2.1 Trade Creation and Trade Diversion xiv 2.1.1 Trade Creation xiv 2.1.2 Trade Diversion xvii 2.1.3 Gross Trade Creation xviii 2.2 Empirical Evidence from SS RTAs xx 3.Theoretical Framework and Research Methodology xxi 3.1 Theoretical Framework xxi 3.1.1 Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building xxi 3.1.2 Regression Model Diagnosis xxii 3.1.3 The Gravity Model of Trade xxiii 3.1.4 Research Assumptions xxvii 3.1.5 Research Limitations xxvii 3.2 Research Methodology xxvii 3.2.1 Research Type and Approach xxvii 3.2.2 Data Collection xxx 4. Findings and Results xxxi 4.1 The effect of RTAs xxxi 5. Conclusions xxxiii 6. Appendix xxxiv 7. References xxxvii List of Figures Figure 1 Trade Creation. Figure 2 Trade Diversion Figure 3 Trade Creation Proper vrs. Gross Trade Creation Figure 4 Multiple regression hyperplane List of Tables Table 1 Dummy Variable Interpretation.. Table 2 RTAs assessed and Members Table 3 Regression results of individual years Table 4 Regression results of PCS List of Formulas Formula 1 Gravity model equation Formula 2 Log linear form of the gravity model Formula 3 Current gravity specifications.. Abbreviations CGE: Computable General Equilibrium COMESA: Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa FTA: Free Trade Agreement GATT: General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GDP: Gross Domestic Product MERCOSUR: Mercado ComÃÆ' ºn del Sur RTA signed between Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay NAFTA: North American Free Trade Agreement OLS: Ordinary Least Squares PCS: Pooled Cross-Section PTA: Preferential Trade Agreement RIA: Regional Integration Agreement RTA: Regional Trade Agreement SICA: Sistema de IntegraciÃÆ' ³n Centro Americana RTA between Honduras, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua Panama and Belize SS: South-South UNCTAD: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development WB: World Bank WITS: World Integrated Trade Solution WTO: World Trade Organization 1. Introduction Background Four hundred and sixty two RTAs have been notified to the WTO up to February 2010 (WTO,2010). From 1948-1994 the GATT received one hundred and twenty four notifications of RTAs, and since its creation in 1995, the WTO has received over 300 RTA notifications, (WTO,2010). This trend of forming trading blocs is likely to become stronger as more RTAs are currently under negotiation. Of particular interest to economists, and the focus of this paper, are South-South RTAs, that is, RTAs signed between countries of low income levels. There are reasons to believe that SS RTAs may not only fail to stimulate economic growth among member countries, but also hinder growth for these countries. In their book Regional Integration and Development, Winters and Schiffer (2003) state that there is some evidence that North-South RTAs stimulate economic growth in the southern partner, little evidence that North-North RTAs stimulate growth and NO evidence that South-South RTAs do so. Specifically they argue that SS RTAs do not provide partners with access to technology or knowledge that is characteristic of rich countries; SS RTAs are unlikely to add credibility to government policies and may even hinder investment if not accompanied by liberalization of trade with the rest of the world; and, SS RTAs are likely to generate only trade diversion and no trade creation Mayda and Steinberg (2006) argue that SS RTAs are unlikely to provide the positive effects of competition and economies of scale because partner countries are both small and poor. In addition, the loss of fiscal revenues harms the member country economies and finally, SS RTAs are more likely to divert trade rather than create trade. Willmore (1976) and Nicholls (1998) make similar points using the Central American Common Market as an example. Trade creation and trade diversion are concepts that were introduced by Jacob Viner in 1950. Both terms refer to the redirection of trade flows as a consequence of an RTA. In trade creation, goods that were previously produced by a local economy are instead imported from more efficient producers in countries within the RTA. Trade diversion refers to the redirecting of trade from the more efficient producer to a less efficient producer within the RTA. In both cases, trade creation and trade diversion, the trade flows are affected by the reduction of tariffs to member countries typical of RTAs. Trade creation and trade diversion are explained with more detail in section 2.1 of this paper. A number of studies have been conducted to assess the effects of SS RTAs in partner countries -most of them attempt to determine if the RTAs were trade creating or trade diverting e.g. Evans (1998), Lewis et al. (1999), Flores (1997), Cernat (2001,2003)), Subramanian and Tamirisa (2001), Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods have been used and the results are mixed. As a reference, this paper focuses on the results of Cernat (2001, 2003), Flores (1997), and Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods were used in these studies and the results were mixed. Cernat (2001) used the log-linear form of the gravity equation to assess nine SS RTAs. He finds evidence that suggests that SS RTAs are less trade diverting than theoretically predicted. Cernat (2001) findings suggest that Mercosur and the Andean Community were overall, trade diverting. On the other hand Flores (1997), using a CGE analysis, concluded that Mercosur was trade creating. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) use a difference-in-difference estimation strategy at commodity level to assess the impact of COMESA on Ugandan imports. They present evidence that South-South trade agreements create positive but little economic gains, through changes in trade patterns, for their members. This is different from Cernat (2001) results, which indicate that imports into COMESA members from third countries were on average 30 per cent higher than those predicted without the trade diversion dummy variable. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) find evidence that no trade diversion takes place in COMESA. The mixed results from these studies, the increasing number of SS RTAs underway and the high number of countries wanting to join completely or in part in these RTAs poses the following questions: Why do policy makers from these countries advocate in favor of these RTAs? Should these RTAs be pursued?, and the still not categorically answered question: Are South-South Regional Trade Agreements trade creating or trade diverting? Using the gravity model, this paper aims to get evidence from SS RTAs from the Americas. 1.2 Problem definition Do South-South Regional Trade Agreements create trade or divert trade? The literature on this topic is vast and contradictory. Everybody thinks that SS-RTAs are trade diverting. Some papers present evidence of this. Other present evidence that they are actually trade creating. Finally others find evidence of very little trade creation and no significant evidence of trade diversion. With so many RTAS in place and many others underway, it is important to understand the effects of creating these trade blocs. Should poor countries pursue RTAs with poor countries? Are SS RTAs building blocks or stumbling stones towards the world liberalization of trade? 1.3 Research Objective The main objective of this paper is to determine if MERCOSUR, Andean Community, and SICA were trade creating or trade diverting in the years 1995, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2007. 1.3.1 Major research question Is there significant evidence of trade creation or trade diversion on the years 1995,1998,1999,2003,2007 for Mercosur, Andean Community and SICA? 1.3.2 Minor research question Is there significant evidence that suggests that RTA members of the above mentioned RTAs increased trade between them and their partners? Is there significant evidence that suggests that members of the above mentioned RTAs increased trade between them and third countries? Is there significant evidence that suggests that the increase in trade between RTA partners of the above mentioned RTAs is higher than the decrease in trade between RTA members and third countries? 1.4 Theoretical Framework 1.4.1 The Gravity model of trade The gravity model uses Newtonian gravity principles to study human behavior. It is widely used by economists and social scientists to predict flows of trade, people, goods, money, and other variables as an effect of changes in economic policies, fiscal policies, new laws, bans and other distortions to the flow of a given variable. The original gravity model of trade assumes that two countries will trade more or less depending on the sizes of their economies and the distance between their economic centers. It was created independently by Tinbergen (1962) and PÃÆ' ¶yhÃÆ' ¶nen (1963) and augmented in later years to include other independent variables that may cause a change in trade flows. These augmented versions of the basic gravity model may include: population of the two countries, presence of common borders, same language, common colonizer, and others that the researcher regards as relevant. The gravity model specifications used in this paper are similar to those of Cernat(2001) and Cheng Hall (2003). These specifications are used to run OLS regressions on trade data of 1995, 1998, 1998, 2003 and 2007. One set of pooled data including the years mentioned is analyzed using the same gravity specifications. The results of these regressions provide evidence of gross trade creation and diversion as specified by Balassa (1967) 1.4.2 Research Methodology and Design The paper uses standard OLS analysis, with bilateral imports as a dependent variable and 17 independent variables: GDP of the importing country, GDP of the exporting country, Population of the importing country and population of the exporting country, distance between the capital cities of each country pair, Intra_x dummy variable for each RTA, Extra_x dummy variable for each RTA. The values of GDPs, distance and populations are used in their logarithmic form. GDPs and population data was collected from the WB databank. Trade data was collected from UNCTADs database using the WB banks WITS application. 1.4.3 Research Assumptions Costs of transportation are proportional to the great circle distance between economic centers of countries studied All countries have one economic center, namely their capital cities. The error coefficient of the log-linear gravity model used in this paper is normally distributed with a mean of zero and constant variance for all observations. It is also assumed that error pairs are uncorrelated. GDPs, population, and trade data collected belongs to the population 1.4.4 Research Limitations 1.5 Thesis Structure The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents a literature review that explains trade creation and trade diversion, the effect of both and findings of previous papers that assess RTAs. Chapter 3 explains the gravity model used on the paper, how data was collected and organized, and the considerations in analyzing data. Chapter 4 summarizes the findings and Chapter 5 concludes. 2. Literature Review There is extensive literature on RTAs. This literature either predicts the effects of a RTAs using a computable-general equilibrium analysis or they measure the effects of an FTA using aggregate data or commodity level data. The concern of most authors, and the reason why they conduct their research, is that FTAs and specially SS FTAs may divert trade rather than create it. In the former case, purchases from an efficient producing country are replaced by purchases of a less efficient FTA partner. This section serves three purposes: 1. It explains trade creation and trade diversion to the reader so she can better understand the methodology used to assess the selected RTAs. 2. It presents the reader with the results of previous findings so that the reader can compare the results of this paper with previous results of other authors. 3. It gross trade creation and diversion so that the reader can understand the results of the research. 2.1 Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Trade creation and trade diversion as defined by Viner (1950), refer to changes in flow of trade between nations. Trade creation happens when trade is switched from less efficient producers of one country to more efficient producers in another country a better allocation of resources. In trade diversion trade is shifted from more efficient producers in one country to less efficient producers in another country -a worsening in the allocation of resources. 2.1.1 Trade Creation Trade creation can be defined as the net welfare gain that results from the initiation of an RTA, both on the production and on the consumption side. Some economists though, think that it is more precise to think of trade creation only as the increase in welfare from the production side (Senior-Nello S, 2010). In this paper the former definition of welfare is considered. To understand trade creation, imagine the following scenario (Figure 1): The country in question, Country X, say Honduras, imports product Q from country M (United States) at price Pw+t, which includes an ad valorem tax and is the same price offered by other nations in the world, including country E (El Salvador). At this price, Honduras imports 20 units and consumes 60. The remaining 40 units are imported from the US. This is illustrated by the Honduran supply and demand lines in Figure 1 and the perfectly elastic supply curve with free trade of El Salvador. It is understood that a change in Honduran imports of product Q cannot affect the world price of product Q. Figure 1. Trade Creation If Honduras signed an RTA with El Salvador and the price of product Q from El Salvador dropped to PE, Honduras would now produce 10 units of product Q, consume 70, and import the difference of 60 units. Because El Salvador now offers a lower price for product Q, Honduras now imports this product from El Salvador and not from the US. The consumer surplus gains of this RTA are represented by areas a+b+c+d. The loss in producer surplus is indicated by area a. The loss of tariff revenue for Honduras is area c. Therefore the net welfare increase of this RTA between El Salvador and Honduras is indicated by triangles b and d. Triangle b represents the amount of production that was shifted from less efficient producers in Honduras to more efficient producers in El Salvador a better allocation of resources. Triangle d represents the increase in consumption of product Q. 2.1.2 Trade Diversion Trade Diversion is illustrated in figure 2. Again the supply and demand lines are those of Honduras for product Q. Line S1 and S2 are the perfectly elastic supply curves of USA and El Salvador respectively, and lines S1+t and S2+t are the tax inclusive supply curves of the same two countries. Figure 2. Trade Diversion Honduras imports product Q from the US at tax inclusive price Pw+t. El Salvador offers product Q at price PE+t and thus does not benefit from Honduran purchases. At price Pw+t Honduras produces 20 units, consumes 60, and imports 40 from the US. If Honduras and El Salvador now form an RTA and do not include the US, tariffs will be removed on imports from El Salvador but not from imports from the US. After forming the RTA Honduras would produce 10 million units, consume 80 million and import 60 million units of product Q from El Salvador at price PE. The RTA has diverted trade from more efficient producers in the US to less efficient producers in El Salvador, so there is a worsening in the allocation of resources. On the other hand 10 million units are now imported from El Salvador instead of being produced at home in Honduras. At the same time 40 million units that were previously imported from the US are now being imported from El Salvador. The welfare loss from trade diversion is reflected rectangle f. The 40 million units that were imported from more efficient producers in the US whose free trade price is $1.00 are now imported from El Salvador at $2.00. The welfare loss is $40 million. The welfare gain from the customs union is calculated as the areas of triangles b and d. Triangle b is the welfare gain in the production side: $5 million. Triangle d is the welfare gain in the consumption side: $10 million. The total impact on welfare as a result of the RTA is given by the sum of the areas of triangles b and d minus the area of rectangle f (b+d-f): welfare gain minus welfare loss. In this case the RTA generated a welfare loss of $25 million. Figure 2 illustrates that the idea of trade creation and trade diversion can be misleading. If, for example, the sum of areas of triangles b and d would be greater than the area of rectangle f, the RTA would cause a net welfare gain. In this scenario, although trade has been diverted from more efficient producers in one country to less efficient producers in another, the RTA increased welfare for the RTA signing country. 2.1.3 Gross Trade Creation Following the lead of Jacob Viner, Balassa (1967) evaluated the effects of the European Common Market with reference to its trade creating and trade diverting effect using Tinbergen (1962) and PÃÆ' ¶yhÃÆ' ¶nen (1963) model -the gravity model. In his work he developed model that captured substitution of less efficient domestic and foreign suppliers for more efficient foreign suppliers gross trade creation; which is different than Viners definition of trade creation according to which trade is created only at the expense of local producers. To illustrate the difference gross trade creation and trade creation proper as defined by Viner (1950), consider three trading partners of one particular product countries A, B, and C, product Q (See Figure 3). Before signing a RTA with country B, Country A imports product Q from both, Country B and Country C in equal amounts and has 4 local producers of the same product (Figure 3a). In the case of trade creation proper (Figure 3b), after signing a RTA with country B, Country A continues to import equal amounts of product Q from countries B and C but has reduced the number of local producers of the same product. More efficient producers in Country B have absorbed market share from local producers in Country A trade creation proper. Gross trade creation on the other hand (Figure 3c), considers that trade is created not only when local producers are substituted, but also when producers in third countries are substituted. In this case, after signing a RTA with country B, Country A decreases its imports of product Q from Country C and increases imports of the same product from Country B while keeping the same number of local producers. It is important to note that gross trade creation assumes that substituted producers in Country C were less efficient than producers in country B; the contrary would constitute trade diversion. Figure 3. Trade Creation Proper vrs Gross Trade Creation Like in Cernat (2001), this paper evaluates the gross trade creating effects of the assessed RTAs. In his paper, Balassa (1967) provides evidence of trade creation in the European Common Market during six years since the Markets establishment. Again, trade creation applies to the substitution of any less efficient producer for a more efficient one, independent of the producers base country. The why of the expected differences between the results of developed country RTAs and SS RTAs is explained in the next section. 2.2 Empirical Evidence from SS RTAs A number of studies have been conducted to assess the effects of SS RTAs in partner countries -most of them attempt to determine if the RTAs were trade creating or trade diverting e.g. Evans (1998), Lewis et al. (1999), Flores (1997), Cernat (2001), Subramanian and Tamirisa (2001), Cernat (2003), Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods have been used and the results are mixed. This paper uses methods similar to Cernat (2001) and Cheng Wall (2003). In his paper, Cernat(2001) used the log-linear form of the gravity equation to asses nine SS RTAs. He finds evidence that suggests that SS RTAs are less trade diverting than theoretically predicted. Cernats(2001) findings suggest that Mercosur and the Andean Community were overall, trade diverting. Mayda and Steinberg(2006) use a difference-in-difference estimation strategy at commodity level to assess the impact of COMESA on Ugandan imports. They present evidence that South-South trade agreements create positive but little economic gains, through changes in trade patterns, for their members (Mayda and Steinberg, 2003). This is different from Cernats(2001) results, which indicate that imports into COMESA members from third countries were on average 30 per cent higher than those predicted without the trade diversion dummy variable. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) find evidence that no trade diversion takes place in COMESA. The mixed results from these studies, the increasing number of SS RTAs underway and the high number of countries wanting to join completely or in part in these RTAs poses the following questions: Why do policy makers from these countries advocate in favor of these RTAs? Should these RTAs be pursued?, and the still not categorically answered question: Are South-South Regional Trade Agreements trade creating or trade diverting? Using the gravity model, this paper aims to get evidence from SS RTAs from the Americas. Theoretical Framework and Research Methodology ***Intro*** Problem Definition Research Objective Research Questions 3.1 Theoretical Framework 3.1.1 Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building Figure 4. Regression Hyperplane Multiple regression analysis is a method of inferential statistics that measures the relationship between two or more independent variables and one dependent variable. The multiple regression model is given by: Where: y = dependent variable = regression constant of the population = regression coefficient for each variable xj=1,2,k k = number of independent variables = error of the model Different from a simple regression equation -which forms a straight line in a two-dimensional space to represent the linear relationship between two variables the multiple regression model forms a hyperplane in a multidimensional space (Figure 4). This hyperplane represents the relationship between the dependent variable and k independent variables. To build a multiple regression model, that is, to construct a mathematical equation that represents the relationship between independent and dependent variables, a researcher must decide: The question that needs to be answered The potential independent variables What is a representative sample of the population should be at least four times the number of independent variables (Groebner, et al, 2008) The model used in this paper is well known and widely used by social scientists to measure the flow of various types of variables. This model is explained in section 3.1.3. 3.1.2 Regression Model Diagnosis To ensure the significance of an OLS regression analysis results, the following evaluation criteria are usually used (Groebner, et al, 2008): The coefficient of determination (R2 and R2 adjusted) Significance of the overall model (F-test) Significance of individual variables (t-tests) Size of the standard deviation of the model Multicollinearity of variables The coefficient of determination measures the proportion of variation in the dependent variable that can be explained with the independent variables used by the model. The value of R2 may range from 0-1, with 1 representing a perfect linear relationship between dependent and independent variables. Higher values of R2 are preferred as they would indicate that the chosen independent variables explain better the variations in the dependent variables. A derivate indicator, called adjusted R2, takes into account the number of independent variables in the model, and their contribution the variations in the dependent variable. Because R2 increases when independent variables are added to the model, even if the new variables have no relationship with the dependent variable, adjusted R2 evaluates the model more precisely. The Significance of the overall model can be determined by comparing the Significance F value given in the regression output of a statistical software application, and the critical value for a given alpha level. The critical value for a given alpha level is determined using t-tables and statistical procedures explained in Groebner (2008). The Significance of individual variables is determined by comparing their calculated t-values with the critical t-value of the model. If their calculated t-values are greater than their critical t-values the variable is considered significant. To determine the critical t-values of independent variables, degrees of freedom need to be calculated and interpolated with the desired level of significance in a t-table. For detailed explanations see Groebner (2008). The size of the standard deviation of the model measures the dispersion of observed values of the dependent variable, and the predicted values for the same variable. It is up to the researcher to determine an acceptable range for the standard error estimation. Multicollinearity occurs when two variables provide overlapping information to explain the variation in the dependent variable. To measure multicollinearity the researcher can use the VIF as an indicator. Generally, if the VIF 3.1.3 The Gravity Model of Trade Following Isaac Newtons principle of gravity, according to which two bodies will attract each other more when their sizes are increased and the distance between them is shortened; the gravity model explains trade flow between two countries based on the size of their economies and the distance between their economic centers. The equation representation of the gravity model of trade is: (Formula 1) Where Fg represents trade flow, G is the constant, m1 and m2 are the economic dimensions of the two countries in question, and d is the distance between the two countries. In its basic log-linear form, the gravity equation is as follows: (Formula2) Where is the bilateral trade flow between countries i and j at time t, ÃŽÂ ± is the constant, is the natural logarithm of the GDP of country i, is the natural logarithm of the GDP of country j, is the natural logarithm of the distance between country i and country j, and ÃŽÂ µ is the normally distributed error. This basic gravity model is usually augmented by including other variables like adjacency, common language, colonial links, common currency, and RTA membership among others. Different authors have suggested many different specifications for the gravity model of trade  [1]  , however there is no consensus about which model specification is more accurate and serves best in assessing RTAs. Moreover other authors have suggested that the gravity model is biased due to endogeneity and reverse causality (Magee, 2003) and have led others to use entirely different methods to asses RTAs (Mayda Steinberg (2006). This paper uses a gravity model specification that is similar to Cernat (2001) but considers Cheng Walls (2003) suggestions of eliminating dummy variables that might capture unintended trade distorting variables. To assess trade creation and trade diversion in nine RTAs, Cernat(2001) adds two dummy variables to an already augmented specification of the model: Intra_RTA and Extra_RTA. The Intra_RTA dummy becomes a 1 when both, the importing and the exporting countries, are partners in the RTA being assessed by the two dummies. The Extra_RTA dummy becomes one when the importing country is part of the assessed RTA but the exporter is a third country. The model uses bilateral trade flows as a dependent variable and 18 independent variables: GDP of importing country, GDP of the exporting country, GDP per capita of the importing country, GDP per capita of the exporting country, Population of the importing country, population of the exporting country, distance between the capital cities of both countries, an adjacency dummy variable, a common language dummy variable, nine Intra_RTA dummy variables (one for each RTA assessed), and nine Extra_RTA dummy variables (one for each RTA assessed). All non-dummy variables expressed in their logarithmic form. In theory, the Intra_RTA dummies will capture the effect that the assessed RTA had on trade between partners of the RTA; and the Extra_RTA dummy captures the effect of the same RTA on trade of RTA members with third countries. To diagnose a RTA as trade crating or trade diverting, Cernat (2001) designed an Intra-Extra coefficient table (Table# in this paper). According to this table, if a trade agreement increased trade between its partners at the expense of third countries -diverted trade, the Intra_RTA dummy should be positive and the Extra_RTA dummy negative. If the agreement created trade instead, the coefficients of both dummies would be positive. Coefficient Extra_RTA Intra_RTA Sign + + Trade creation and trade expansion Trade diversion Trade expansion Trade contraction Table 1: Dummy Variable Interpretation Cheng Wall (2003) use a fixed-effect panel data analysis to measure the effect on trade of RTAs over time. Their proposed model allegedly controls the heterogeneity bias in the gravity model of trade. In it, Cheng Wall (2003) drop all dummy variables and even drop the distance variable. They argue that these variables bias the gravity model and they motivate their argument in a number of ways. First, they reason that economic distances are too hard to measure with accuracy because big countries have many economic centers, that are thousands of miles apart and that serve as trade centers for diffe